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Which Way is the Economy going to Go?
Which way the economy is going to go is anyone’s guess. There are positive economic indicators out there being reported that would lead you to believe that we are slowly starting to creep into positive growth territory from the worst economic downturn since the Great Depression.
Housing construction is up to its highest level in 8 months.
Building permits rose 2.7% in August.
Builder confidence is slowly heading higher…
Mortgage rates are falling slightly
BUT
Retailers are reported as being “cautious” about holiday hiring and retail sales don’t seem to be rising at the rate you would expect for a recovery.
The consumer, which accounts for 70% of our countries GDP, is still hoarding their money and spending cautiously.
Some econonomists predict that we could see a “double-dip” recession from and into 2011.
Where we go from here, no one knows. I think it will be a slow crawl back up to the top…
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Home Prices Rise 1.7% Last Quarter
Prices for homes purchased with mortgages bought by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac rose 1.7% from the previous quarter, and for the first time in 2 years, prices rose in all the regions Fannie and Freddie monitor.
This data is consistent with the other positive housing market indicators that show home sales growth.
The National Association of Realtors reported that pending sales of existing housing inventory rose 3.2% from June to July, which marks the 6th straight monthly increase in pending home sales. That is the longest streak of gains since NAR started keeping track in 2001.
Lets hope the good news in housing continues…
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The Turnaround is Near
A bevy of recent good news has hit the news wires lately. For our country’s sake, I hope it signifies a turning point in our economy.
Here are some of the highlights:
- Home prices are increasing. According to the Case-Shiller home price index, home prices in the quarter ended June 30th rose in 18 of the 20 cities that are part of the index.
- Consumer confidence is on the mend. A new survey from the Conference Board suggests that consumers’ views of the economy and expectations for the future improved in August.
- Sales of new homes is increasing. The U.S. Department of Commerce reported that sales of new homes rose 9.6% in July.
- Weekly mortgage applications are rising. The Mortgage Bankers Association reported that on August 21st, demand for applications increased 7.5% from the previous week.
All of this bodes well for the real estate market and the overall U.S. economy as a whole. Most economists are predicting that this quarter (ending Sept. 30th) we will have positive GDP growth and officially be out of the recession.
I don’t know about you, but I’m ready… are you?